CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-06-29T02:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20650/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, possible faint partial halo in the N in SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with filament eruption centered near N25E15, visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-06-28T21:48Z. Notes on the CME arrival from the LASSOS team: the start of the (sheath and fluxrope) for this CME are not clear. A potential start time for the flux rope can be 2022-07-03T19:20Z, where the rotation starts and density drops below 5 particles per cm^3. The CME signature is impacted by a very brief high speed stream which overtakes the CME at around 2022-07-03T23:00Z, when the density starts to increase.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-03T07:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-03T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20657/1 Model Inputs: 2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=294.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2022-06-29T14:14Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-03T05:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-07-03T10:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220629_141400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 89.97 hour(s)
Difference: 2.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-06-29T13:03Z
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